pjbooks Chapter 507: Demand Peaks
Chapter 507: Demand Peaks
In the afternoon, Huang Xiaochuan's elderly mother, Zeng Lijuan, made a phone call.
"Xiao Chuan, come over for dinner tonight!"
"Mom, my senior colleague asked me to talk to him about something tonight, so I won't be going."
When Zeng Lijuan heard that her son had a social engagement that evening, she asked with concern, "Then drink less alcohol tonight, okay?"
Huang Xiaochuan felt a warmth in his heart: "I understand. Tonight we'll just chat, we won't drink much."
Even after two lifetimes, your mother is still the same mother. No matter if you are rich or poor, you will always be the child in her heart who has never grown up.
When Hong Yongze saw Huang Xiaochuan with half his face bruised that evening, he was shocked.
"Junior brother, what's going on with you?"
Huang Xiaochuan said self-deprecatingly, "Hey! Don't even mention it. I wasn't looking where I was going when I was on the phone, and I bumped into a telephone pole."
Hong Yongze complained, "You're such a grown-up, can't you be more careful when you walk?"
In fact, Hong Yongze guessed that this was just Huang Xiaochuan's excuse, but since everyone was an adult, they naturally wouldn't pry into it; there was no need for that.
Then Hong Yongze introduced Huang Xiaochuan to a middle-aged man in his early forties standing behind him.
"Junior brother, let me introduce you. This is Mr. Qu Lei, the general manager of Shenzhen Science and Technology Real Estate Company. He has long admired you and came all the way from Shenzhen to see you."
Qu Lei warmly reached out and grabbed Huang Xiaochuan's hands, shaking them tightly: "Professor Huang, I've wanted to visit you for a long time, but I haven't been able to find anyone to introduce me, so I didn't dare to come and see you rashly. It wasn't until I finally got help from Director Hong that I was able to meet you."
Upon hearing this, Huang Xiaochuan knew that this person was a social climber; his words were spot-on, flattering two people with a single sentence.
However, he still humbly replied, "Mr. Qu, you flatter me. I'm just a teacher; I don't deserve such kindness!"
Upon hearing this, Qu Lei became displeased: "Professor Huang, I don't like hearing you say that. I don't like to talk about empty words. You're not even thirty years old and you're already an associate professor. What did you rely on? It's because you have real talent and knowledge! I don't have any other merits, but I respect learned people. So Professor Huang, please don't stand on ceremony with me. You deserve my respect."
Upon hearing this, Huang Xiaochuan couldn't help but look at Hong Yongze, thinking to himself, "Where did Senior Brother Hong get to know this person? This little mouth is really good at talking!"
Hong Yongze, of course, understood the meaning in Huang Xiaochuan's eyes. He laughed and said, "Junior brother, after reading several of your articles on real estate development, President Qu speaks highly of you! He has always wanted to find an opportunity to get to know you, and this time he came to Shanghai specifically to invite you to come out of retirement."
"Coming out of the mountains?" Huang Xiaochuan was taken aback.
However, he quickly realized that this phenomenon was very common in later generations. Some companies that specialize in benefiting from policy dividends often hire economists to help them analyze current affairs and policies in order to adjust their business strategies.
Some of these experts and scholars are even policy strategists.
After exchanging pleasantries, the three took their seats. There were only three people at the dinner tonight, which suggests that Mr. Qu had known about Huang Xiaochuan's preferences beforehand.
However, after some polite refusals among the three, Hong Yongze ultimately took the seat of honor. Firstly, he was the one who introduced Huang and Qu, and secondly, he was, after all, a high-ranking administrative official and Huang Xiaochuan's senior fellow apprentice.
Tonight's topic is that Qu Lei wants to hire Huang Xiaochuan as the chief economic advisor of Shenzhen Science and Technology Real Estate.
The reason for this is Huang Xiaochuan's articles about the future development of China's real estate market. Qu Lei has read many economists' articles, but Huang Xiaochuan's articles alone resonated with him.
He himself experienced the island real estate boom and has a deep understanding of the drawbacks of real estate. Although he escaped unscathed, countless people like him suffered setbacks on the island.
In the late 1990s, the country began to vigorously promote the development of the real estate industry. Qu Lei, who was exceptionally perceptive to national policy information, sensed something unusual and felt that this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
He then used the first pot of gold he earned from the island to invest in real estate development. However, this was not his first time doing this, so he was naturally much more skilled at it than others.
Moreover, Qu Lei is good at referring to the papers of some economics experts, so he often reads economics papers on real estate development, and naturally he came across Huang Xiaochuan's article.
Because some of Qu Lei's ideas coincided with Huang Xiaochuan's arguments in the article, Qu Lei naturally regarded Huang Xiaochuan's article as a guiding principle and would take it out to read from time to time.
As the real estate market developed, many of the viewpoints and drawbacks of real estate development put forward by Huang Xiaochuan in his articles became apparent one by one. This made Qu Lei feel that Huang Xiaochuan was a confidant in his career, and he couldn't wait to get to know him.
After making inquiries, Qu Lei learned that Huang Xiaochuan had become an associate professor before he was even thirty years old. Qu Lei couldn't help but sigh that the saying "heroes have emerged from among the young" was absolutely true, and he was even more eager to meet and chat with Huang Xiaochuan as soon as possible.
However, Qu Lei, who was nearly fifty years old, had become more cautious in his actions and did not rashly approach Huang Xiaochuan, fearing that it would offend Huang Xiaochuan. So he asked a friend to help him find someone to introduce him. As expected, he met Hong Yongze through his friend's recommendation. After chatting, the two were surprised to learn that Hong Yongze was actually Huang Xiaochuan's senior in school, which made Qu Lei even more overjoyed.
That's why I had this meeting with Huang Xiaochuan.
Of course, although Qu Lei's words sounded good, he still wanted to test Huang Xiaochuan himself. After all, he was a businessman who had invested real money, so he naturally wanted to get genuine talent.
"Professor Huang, I have read all your articles on real estate. Your views really resonate with me. However, I am not an academic, so I would like to ask you some questions in person."
Huang Xiaochuan glanced at Qu Lei. He knew Qu Lei's purpose and thoughts. Of course, he would never agree to become the chief economist of Shenzhen Science and Technology Company, but they could still discuss issues together.
"Mr. Qu, you're too kind. It's no big deal whether I'm asking for your advice or not; it's just a casual chat between friends."
Seeing Huang Xiaochuan say this, Qu Lei stopped being polite and directly asked his question.
"I saw in your article that you said my country's golden age of real estate development will not last more than thirty years. I'm very curious how you came to this judgment?"
Hearing this question, Hong Yongze was also very interested, and he wanted to hear how his junior brother would answer it.
Huang Xiaochuan smiled and then said, "I will try not to use technical terms to explain what follows. There is a theory in economics about economic cycles and market saturation. This theory is not difficult to understand; you can tell what it means just from the words."
This theory has existed since the emergence of economic activities in human society.
That is, the rapid growth of any industry will be limited by the market capacity and demand. For example, if there are 1,000 households in a village, but these 1,000 households live in 200 houses, then there will naturally be a shortage of 800 houses. Considering the factor of population growth, 1,500 houses are enough to ensure that the village will not lack houses for the next 50 years.
However, capital is profit-driven. When they see such a market, their first thought is not to improve residents' housing conditions, but to maximize their profits. They will then carry out a series of operations, such as using media bombardment and scarcity marketing to amplify the panic among buyers, making people who do not need to buy a house want to buy one. This creates the illusion that demand exceeds supply.
This naturally leads to an exceptionally hot market. What was originally a market with only 1,500 units sold 2,000, and another 2,000 are under construction. But demand cannot be faked. What will happen when people realize there are more houses than they need?
Huang Xiaochuan took a sip of tea while keeping everyone in suspense, and continued while Hong Yongze and Qu Lei waited, "Then naturally there's no need anymore. We can't just buy houses for fun, can we?"
Once demand is lost, the real estate market will plateau for a considerable period of time; this is what I mean by a recession.
There are many examples. Leaving aside distant ones, just look at Japan. Data shows that in 1974, the demand for real estate in Japan peaked. Considering Japan's population and land area, it is highly likely that the demand for real estate in my country will peak in the future, just like in Japan.
And most importantly, there's the issue of population. If the current birth policy doesn't change, the future population structure will further reduce the demand for real estate. The window of opportunity for population policy is crucial; it's best to implement it as early as possible, otherwise, my country may face a crisis of negative population growth in the future.
Upon hearing this, Qu Lei was struck by its significance. "Yes! Population? According to current policies, the population will only continue to decline, and once a house is purchased, the situation won't change much for a long time unless there is family demand. But if family demand is met, meaning people no longer need houses, then houses will naturally become difficult to sell."
If that's the case, then the period during which real estate can generate profits is only about thirty years.
Although Huang Xiaochuan's statements were all speculations, Qu Lei believed them wholeheartedly. He could be considered a Confucian businessman, and compared to the rough-and-ready heroes of this era, he had unique insights into the long-term development of his company.
This was also his original intention in wanting to hire Huang Xiaochuan to serve as the chief economist at Shenzhen Science and Technology Real Estate.
However, Huang Xiaochuan refused Qu Lei's invitation without hesitation.
Why would a financial tycoon who doesn't even know his own exact assets work for a developing real estate company? If Charlie Cao, Nan Hui, and others found out about this, they'd probably be shocked.
Although he declined Qu Lei's invitation, Huang Xiaochuan agreed that Qu Lei could come to him often to discuss some professional issues in the future.