pjbooks Chapter 189 Gathering
Chapter 189 Gathering
January 15, 2021.
The paper entered the "Under Review" status on the third day.
Su Chen sat in front of the computer in the lab, but instead of the submission system—he had learned to check it only once every three days—an email was displayed on the screen.
The sender was Zhou Zhiyuan.
The email's subject was: "FW: Inquiry from Bosch - Steinmann"
Su Chen opened the email, which contained an English email from Stein, forwarded by Zhou Zhiyuan.
Dear Prof. Zhou,
I hope this message finds you well. My name is Klaus Steinmann, and I am the head of the MEMS division at Bosch Suzhou. I recently became aware of your team's work on third-order nonlinear thermal-elastic coupling theory and wanted to express our interest in learning more about your research.
Would you or your colleagues be available for an informal discussion in the coming weeks? We would be happy to host a visit at our Suzhou facility, or alternatively, meet at a location convenient for your team.
Best Regards,
Klaus Steinmann"
Zhou Zhiyuan added a brief note to the forwarded email: "What do you think, head of Bosch's Suzhou base?"
After reading the email, Su Chen leaned back in his chair and pondered for a few seconds.
Bosch.
A global leader in the MEMS industry. Holding over 25% of the global market share in MEMS sensors, with annual revenue exceeding 1.5 billion euros. Their expertise in materials science represents thirty years of accumulated experience—something no new company can replicate.
Now, the head of Bosch's Suzhou base has proactively sent an email to arrange a meeting.
What does this mean?
Su Chen thought for a moment, then took out his phone and sent Lin Wei a message: "People from Bosch's Suzhou base have invited us to meet. Teacher Zhou forwarded the email; see how you should reply."
Three minutes later, Lin Wei replied: "I saw it. Zhou Zhiyuan has forwarded the email to me. I'll handle it."
A minute later, Lin Wei sent a second message: "Not now. Let's wait until we have preliminary results for the paper. We don't have enough leverage yet."
Su Chen read the message and nodded.
Lin Wei's judgment was correct.
The paper is still under review. Before the review results are released, the third-order model is just a "claim"—a claim that has not been certified by a top international journal. At this point, Villan's negotiating position is too weak to meet with Bosch.
But what if the paper is accepted by NM?
At that point, the third-order model will no longer be a claim, but a fact. Vilan will no longer be a small company seeking cooperation, but a standard-setter with pricing power.
When I saw Bosch again at that time, everything would be different.
Su Chen replied to Zhou Zhiyuan: "Lin Wei's opinion is to not see me for now. I'll reply to Bosch once I have the results of the paper."
Zhou Zhiyuan replied instantly: "Agreed. Tell Stein we're quite busy lately and will arrange it later."
"good."
Su Chen closed the email and continued working.
But there was a subtle curve at the corner of his mouth.
Bosch took the initiative to approach them.
Three months ago, Vilan Microsystems was a small, unknown company in Suzhou. Three months later, a global leader in MEMS proactively sought a meeting with them.
The changes were so rapid that sometimes even he himself felt it was unreal.
But the data is real. ±0.018° is real. The paper is real.
Everything else is simply the inevitable result of data.
……
January 16th.
Shenzhen, TianShu Chip Headquarters.
He Zhiqiang sat in his office with two documents on the table in front of him.
The first document is TianShu Chip's financial report for the fourth quarter of 2020. The numbers aren't good—after the MEMS project was downgraded, related R&D expenditures decreased, but the sunk costs of the initial investment are still listed on the financial statements. Revenue growth from automotive-grade MCUs will take time to make up for this shortfall.
The second document was an industry briefing sent by Chen Zheming—a partner at that industry fund. One passage in the briefing was highlighted in red:
According to industry sources, Bosch, the global leader in MEMS, has sent senior executives to Suzhou, China, in what appears to be contact with Vilan Microsystems. If Bosch and Vilan establish a cooperative relationship, the global MEMS industry landscape will undergo fundamental changes. We recommend a reassessment of MEMS-related stocks in your investment portfolio.
After reading this passage, He Zhiqiang put down the briefing.
Has Bosch and Vilan made contact?
He picked up his phone and sent Liu Feng a message: "I heard Bosch sent people to Suzhou, has that been confirmed?"
Liu Feng is the technical lead for the TianShu chip MEMS project and has connections in the industry. Three minutes later, he replied: "The news is true. Albrecht, the global president of Bosch's MEMS business unit, arrived in Suzhou last week. He has been at Bosch's Suzhou base for at least three days."
He Zhiqiang's brows furrowed even more.
The global president of Bosch's MEMS business unit personally flew to Suzhou.
Who is Albrecht? He's someone who worked at Bosch for 37 years and headed the world's largest MEMS business unit. Someone of his stature wouldn't personally fly to Suzhou just to see the sights.
He must have come for Wei Lan.
Or to be more precise—it came for the third-order model.
He Zhiqiang leaned back in his chair and closed his eyes.
Two months ago, Liu Feng said, "What Su Chen did wasn't engineering improvement, it was a theoretical system. Engineering improvements can be followed, but theoretical systems cannot."
A month ago, he downgraded the MEMS project to a standby status, retaining the core three members and shifting the remaining resources to MCU.
Now, Bosch's global president has personally flown to Suzhou to assess the impact of the third-order model.
What does this mean?
This means that TianShu Chip's initial assessment was correct—the rules of the game in the MEMS field are indeed changing.
But this also means something else—
If Bosch is considering cooperating with Vilan instead of confronting it, what is the point of Tianshu chip's MEMS project?
"Liu Feng," He Zhiqiang initiated the call, "prepare a complete evaluation report for your MEMS project. Include sunk costs, the market value of existing technology, and three exit strategies—complete termination, resale, and maintenance without further investment. Give it to me within two weeks."
"Yes, Mr. He." Liu Feng paused for a moment, "This is to..."
"This is for the investors," He Zhiqiang said calmly. "Chen Zheming wants a clear answer. I must make a final decision before the end of Q1."
"Understood."
After hanging up the phone, He Zhiqiang opened the window.
January in Shenzhen isn't cold. Sunlight streamed in through the window, falling on the back of his hand.
He recalled that a year ago, when TianShu Chip had just established its MEMS project, he confidently told investors, "MEMS is a trillion-dollar market, and we have the opportunity to carve out a slice of the pie."
A year later, the cake was still there, but the knife used to cut it had changed.
The new knife is called the "Third-Order Nonlinear Thermoelastic Coupling Model," and it was created by a 22-year-old doctoral student.
And this knife is currently in the hands of reviewers at Nature Materials.
……
January 18th.
Suzhou, Vilan Microsystems.
The installation of Hongyuan equipment has entered its tenth day.
The first of the two etching machines has been installed and is currently being tested. The second machine is expected to be installed in three more days.
Su Chen went to the workshop in the afternoon. Two engineers sent by Hongyuan were working with Weilan's technicians to debug the parameters of the first piece of equipment.
"How's the accuracy?" Su Chen asked Xiao Wang, the engineer in charge of debugging.
Xiao Wang glanced at the data on the panel: "First round of calibration complete, deviation within design range. Second round of fine calibration is expected to begin tomorrow."
"Theoretical accuracy after calibration?"
"±0.022°," Xiao Wang replied. "That's the equipment specification from Hongyuan. Actual mass production accuracy depends on the process parameters—based on our current 300mm process parameters, we expect to achieve around ±0.020°."
Su Chen nodded.
±0.020°—this is a significant improvement over their previous equipment. With both new machines fully operational, Vilan's etching capacity will increase by 40%, while process precision will also improve.
"Feel free to contact me anytime if you have any problems," Su Chen said, then turned and walked out of the workshop.
As he walked down the corridor, he encountered Lin Wei.
"How's the equipment debugging going?" Lin Wei asked.
"The first one is almost done, the second one will take another three days."
"Okay." Lin Wei nodded, then handed Su Chen a piece of paper. "This is a summary of orders from the eight core companies in the alliance. The first batch of 300mm commercial sensors will be shipped before the end of February, and these eight companies are the first batch of customers."
Su Chen took it and glanced at it. The names of the eight companies were all familiar—they were all core members who joined the alliance earliest and signed confidentiality agreements earliest. Their combined order volume was approximately 150,000 units.
"150,000." Su Chen read out the number.
"The first batch," Lin Wei emphasized. "This is just the first batch. Orders for the second quarter are expected to triple or quadruple. That is, —"
"That is, the paper is accepted." Su Chen replied.
"Yes." Lin Wei's gaze was calm and clear. "Before the paper was accepted, these clients only had 70% confidence. After the paper was accepted, their confidence would reach 100%. The difference between 70% and 100% translates to a three- to four-fold increase in order volume."
Su Chen paused for a second, then nodded.
"That's why April is important."
"So April is very important." Lin Wei repeated his words.
The two looked at each other and said nothing more.
There's no need to say anything more.
……
January 19th.
Zhihu.
The "calm analyst" has published a new long article:
What's happening in the MEMS industry? — Starting with a submission from Vilan (NM)
Unlike his previous posts which consisted of only a sentence or two, this article is a complete analysis of over five thousand words.
The article has a very clear structure:
The first part reviews the development of the MEMS industry over the past two decades—from the era of empirical formulas dominated by Bosch, to the catch-up by STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments, to the ceiling that the industry encountered in terms of accuracy in the 200mm-250mm range.
The second part analyzes the potential impact of the third-order model—what would it mean if the paper were accepted by NM? It would mean that all existing empirical formulas would become special cases of a more universal framework. It would mean that the technological barriers in the MEMS industry would shift from "who has more experience" to "who can best apply the new theory." It would mean that the rules of the game in the industry would be rewritten.
The third part is his analysis of the reactions from all parties—Bosch executives personally visited Suzhou (the source of the information is unclear, but the "calm analyst" claims to have reliable sources), STMicroelectronics discussed response strategies internally ("the patent barrier proposal has reportedly been rejected"), and the waiting attitude of various parties in China.
The last paragraph of the article reads as follows:
"A 22-year-old PhD student wrote a paper in three months that could potentially change the entire industry. The paper is currently being reviewed by Nature Materials reviewers."
Nobody knows what judgment the reviewers will make.
But one thing is certain: regardless of the final outcome of the paper, the MEMS industry is different now. The mere news that 'Velocity invested in NM' has already prompted leading global MEMS companies to reassess their strategies.
Bosch visited Suzhou. STMicroelectronics discussed solutions. TianShu Chip lowered its priority for MEMS. MicroPort Sensing resumed supply.
These things didn't happen because the paper was published—the paper was still under review. They happened simply because the paper was submitted.
Submitting a paper is itself a signal. A signal is power.
The real power—the day the paper is accepted—has not yet arrived.
When that day comes, will you be ready?
Within 24 hours of its publication, the article garnered over 12,000 likes and more than 3,000 comments, becoming one of the most popular articles of the year on Zhihu's technology section.
"Semiconductor Veteran 2003" has still not replied.
His silence itself is an answer.
……
January 20th.
Su Chen opened the submission system.
Status: Under Review.
no change.
He closed the page and opened his notes on the 400mm verification scheme.
Below "Direction Two", he added a new line:
"Contact Zhang Li of CR Microelectronics to discuss the feasibility of conducting a 400mm edge region simulation experiment on an existing 300mm production line. Required data include: temperature field distribution, stress gradient distribution, and accuracy decay curve within the 10mm edge region. If the edge region data matches the 400mm prediction of the third-order model, it can serve as indirect verification evidence."
He sent an email to Zhang Li, inquiring about the feasibility of the experiment and its estimated timeframe.
Then he continued to wait.
January in Suzhou was chilly and overcast, with occasional light rain. The laboratory heating wasn't working very well, so Su Chen sat at his workstation wearing a thick down jacket.
Six to eight weeks.
It's been four weeks since I submitted the paper.
There are still two to four weeks to go.
This is the longest part—the first three months are the sprint, including theoretical derivation, experimental verification, paper writing, and joint submission—every day has a clear goal, and every day is progressing.
But now, there's only one goal: wait.
Waiting is a peculiar torment—not because you have nothing to do, but because the things you can do no longer matter. You can prepare a 400mm verification plan, optimize existing process parameters, and help Lin Wei with some technical documents—but the meaning of all these things depends on a variable you cannot control.
The reviewer's judgment.
Su Chen shut down his computer, stood up, and walked to the window.
Outside the window was the courtyard of the Weilan factory area, where the second piece of Hongyuan equipment was unloading goods. The forklift moved slowly in the rain, and Zhao Guoping stood by, holding an umbrella and directing the operation.
Everything is progressing.
The supply chain is moving forward, the product line is moving forward, the alliance is moving forward, and the competitors are being evaluated.
The entire MEMS industry is revolving around a paper that has not yet been published.
The author of this paper could only stand by the window and watch the rain.
Su Chen smiled.
This is probably the essence of academia—you spend three months creating a theory that could potentially change an industry, and then spend the same amount of time waiting for someone to tell you whether the theory is correct or not.
Of course, he knew the answer.
The third-order model is correct.
However, between "he knows" and "academic certification" there is a process called "peer review".
This process cannot be accelerated, skipped, or replaced.
We can only wait.
Su Chen turned around and went back to his workstation, reopening his notes on the 400mm verification solution.
Waiting doesn't have to be futile.
He wrote a new title in his notes:
Future research directions – expanding the applications of third-order models
The following are three directions:
1. Theoretical prediction of long-term performance degradation of MEMS devices—is thermoelastic coupling applicable to device aging analysis? (Note: Ishikawa Akira's gyroscope data may be relevant to this.)
Can the thermoelastic coupling of thin film materials—a third-order model—be extended to non-silicon-based MEMS? (Note: New material parameters are required; Bosch has experience in this area.)
Scale effects in nanoscale MEMS—where are the boundaries of the third-order model's applicability when sizes shrink from millimeters to micrometers or even nanometers? (Note: This is a completely new direction and may require corrections from quantum mechanics.)
Su Chen looked at the three directions and drew a circle after the first one.
This is the direction most likely to be validated in the short term.
If Akira Ishikawa's three years of gyroscope data matches the predictions of the third-order model, then the applicability of this model will not be limited to MEMS manufacturing, but to the entire lifecycle of MEMS devices.
This will form the basis for the second paper.
But the prerequisite is that the first paper must pass the review.
Next to "Direction 1," Su Chen wrote in small print: "Waiting for NM review results. Waiting for Ishikawa Akira's data."
Then he saved the notes and shut down the computer.
The rain is still falling outside the window.
Suzhou in January is quiet and humid.
But beneath the silence, everything is gathering.
Bosch's assessment is gathering, STMicroelectronics' analysis is gathering, TianShu Chip's decision is gathering, Ishikawa Akira's data is gathering, discussions on Zhihu are gathering, alliance orders are gathering, and MicroPort Sensing's supply is gathering.
Everything is converging towards the same point in time.
April.
The results of the peer review for the paper.
Everything will be revealed then.
And Su Chen—the center of it all—can only do one thing at this moment.
and so on.
Wait patiently.